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"Genpact"
primarily is business process management company, which provides business process outsourcing (BPO) and software implementation
solution to its clients worldwide. It
began in 1997 as the India-based
captive business process services operation for General
Electric Capital Corporation, or GE Capital,
GE’s financial services business, and became an independent
company at the beginning of 2005.
Prior
to December 30, 2004, the business of the Company was
conducted through various entities and divisions
of the General Electric Company (‘‘GE’’). In
‘‘2004 Reorganization’’
when company's all operations brought under single entity, the
valuation of company was determined at $779,859,000 which
include $485,234,000 as Goodwill. And if this offering got
through the valuation of company will comes out at nearly $3,508,894,979.
Company
earns most of its revenue from offshore BPO solutions, with
operations in India contribute nearly 80% of total revenue.
To
date company has 26731 employees and 27 delivery centers in
various parts of world.
Net
revenues attributable to geographic regions based on location
of service delivery
| |
Revenue
Year ended Dec 31
|
| |
2005 |
2006 |
|
India
|
$400,232 |
81.37% |
$486,528 |
79.36% |
|
Asia,
other than India
|
21,363 |
4.34% |
32,441 |
5.29% |
|
Americas
|
46,994 |
9.55% |
63,543 |
10.37% |
|
Europe
|
23,305 |
4.74% |
30,535 |
4.98% |
|
Total |
$491,894 |
|
$613,047 |
|
Business/Company
Outlook
In
Offshore BPO business, the companies in developed countries
with high labour cost shift some or most of their business processes
like data entry, inquiry handling, documentation, tele marketing,
customer care help lines, data analysis etc (which can be done
and deliver through electronic medium) to other countries with
cheap & skilled labour.
Main
reason behind evolving of offshore BPO business is the cost
advantage due to availably of cheap & skilled labour in
various developing countries. Although with the time this cost
advantage has been reduced to some extent due to rising economic
conditions that lead's to hefty pay rises in developing
countries.
More
over recent decline in Dollar as compare to most currencies
put an extra pressure on margins of these offshore BPO
companies which already working with thin margins. As most of
these companies earns in dollar but spend in local currency,
every 1% decline in Dollar can easily hit company's margins by
0.5%. The effect of this exchange difference is not fully evident
as of yet due to currency hedge done by most of the companies
but as we go forward if dollar don't rise the effect will be
much more evident and hard on offshore BPO companies.
Although
the industry in dollar terms will kept on growing with time
but if dollar stay at these levels the advantage of offshore
BPO business will be decline, so as the margins, particularly
of those companies who earns its most revenue from US and accrued
their most expenses in developing countries like India.
All
in all the future of offshore BPO depends on economic
advantage it can deliver as compare to onsite & in-house business
process units, which currently is on decline.
With
long-term big deals in hand company's revenue is expected to
rise in future, but due to geographic mix of it's earning and
spending, margins
remain uncertain.
Financials
($
in million)
Company's
financial year ends on December 31.
| |
FY
2004 |
FY
2005 |
FY
2006 |
%
Change |
Q1
FY 2006* |
Q1
FY 2007* |
%
Change |
|
Net
revenues—GE
|
408.9
|
449.7 |
453.3 |
0.80% |
109.7 |
120.8 |
10.12% |
|
Net
revenues—Global Clients
|
20.3
|
42.2 |
158.3 |
275.12% |
22.2 |
54.3 |
144.59% |
|
Other
revenues
|
—
|
— |
1.5 |
|
— |
1 |
|
|
Total
net revenues
|
429.1
|
491.9 |
613 |
24.62% |
131.9 |
176 |
33.43% |
|
Gross
profit
|
165.5
|
187.9 |
252.2 |
34% |
53.9 |
66.1 |
22.63% |
|
Income
from operations
|
81.9
|
16.9 |
43.2 |
155.62% |
4.2 |
10.6 |
152.38% |
*Quarter
ended March 31
Company
has shown a revenue growth of nearly 25% and 33% in FY 2006
and Q1FY2007 as compare to corresponding periods last year.
Cash
flows can just fulfill its current needs.
Cash
in books is low and can't support any big acquisition.
Valuation/Offer
value ($
In million)
(Company
may not be able to perform this well, chances of company
performing this well is, two out of five)
Assume
that company shows (assuming
that, nothing
negative happen with company and company perform exceptionally
well and without considering effect of declining dollar)
1.
25% rise in
revenue year on year in FY 2007 and FY 2008 from $631 million
in FY 2006 to $766 million in FY 2007 and $958 million in FY
2008.
2.
Gross margins
rise by 1% to 42%
3.
Operating margins rise by 3% to 10%
This
leave company with operating profit of $77
million and $96 million in FY 2007 and FY 2008 respectively
and after deducting interest cost of nearly $12 and $15 and
income tax cost of $8 & $9, this leave company with net
profit of $57 million and $73 million, that is EPS of $ 0.28
and $ 0.35 for FY 07 and FY 08 respectively.
| ($
In million) |
| FY
2006 |
Assume |
change |
FY
2007 |
FY
2008 |
| $631 |
Rise
in revenue |
25% |
766 |
958 |
| 41% |
Gross
margins rise |
1% |
42% |
42% |
| 7.05% |
Operating
margins |
10% |
77 |
96 |
| |
Interest
cost |
Variable |
$12 |
$15 |
| |
Income
tax |
Variable |
$8 |
$9 |
| |
Net
loss/ profit |
|
57 |
73 |
This
means even if company perform exceptionally
well, at offer price of $17 company's share is available at
one year forward PE of nearly 61 and two year forward PE of
nearly 49.
|
Earning
per share |
Forward
PE (
At offer price of $17)
|
| FY
2007 |
$0.28 |
61 |
| FY
2008 |
$0.35 |
49 |
We rate this IPO
1- on scale of "1 to
5" (5 for best)
Negatives
-
Offer
price is extremely high.
-
High
dependence on one client i.e. GE.
-
Currently
company enjoy tax benefits for majority of its operations
although by March 31 2009 profit from all of its current
delivery centers in India, from which company derived 66%
of its revenues in 2006 will be charged income tax @33.6%.
Also in China the rate of income tax applicable on
company's business is expected to rise by 10% from 15% to
25%.
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Dollar
has shown steep decline against other currencies. Due to
geographical mix of company's business this decline can
hit company very hard.
-
Competition
is rising in its business and most tough competition is
expected to come from software development companies which
increasingly offering their existing clients with supplement
BPO services.
-
Cash
flows can just fulfill its current needs.
-
Due
to high number of employees in BPO industry the dilution
of equity capital due to employ stock options plan is much
higher in BPO industry than in other industries.
-
Cash
in company's books is low and can't support any big acquisition,
which is a major way of growth in BPO industry. Company
has to raise extra debt for any big acquisition.
-
In
‘‘2004 Reorganization’’
when company's all operations brought under single entity, the
valuation of company was determined at $779,859,000 which
include $485,234,000 as Goodwill. And now after nearly two and haft years the owners sees company's valuations at $3,508,894,979.
Despite the fact that the company's profit has declined
since then (due to amortization
of intangibles), so as its future outlook.
-
In
‘‘2004 Reorganization’’
company was valued at;
Nearly
4.7 times its gross profit
And if one uses the same basis, the
company's present valuations will comes out at nearly $1188
million
that is $5.8 per share. Nearly
1.8 times its revenue And if one uses the same basis, the
company's present valuations will comes out at nearly $1115
million
that is $5.4 per share. Nearly
9.5 times its operating profit
And if one uses the same basis,
the company's present valuations will comes out at nearly $412
million
that is $2.0 per share.
|
$
In millions expect per share data |
|
FY
2004 |
FY
2006 |
| |
FY
2004 |
Company's
valuation* |
No.
Of times to valuations |
FY
2006 |
No.
Of times |
Company's
valuation** |
Value
per share*** |
|
Revenue |
429.1
|
778 |
1.8 |
613 |
1.8 |
$1115
(623*1.8) |
$5.4 |
|
Gross
profit |
165.5
|
778 |
4.7 |
252.2 |
4.7 |
$1188
(252.2*4.7) |
$5.8 |
|
Operating
profit |
81.9
|
778 |
9.5 |
43.2 |
9.5 |
$412
(43.2*9.5) |
$2.0
|
*
At the time of ‘‘2004
Reorganization’’ **
Using ‘‘2004 Reorganization’’ valuations as base.
***
Considering 206,405,587 shares outstanding
Positives
-
Long-term
contract with GE
-
Global
presence
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Rich
in experience
-
Deep
insight in various industries like banking and financial
services, insurance, manufacturing, transportation and
healthcare.
-
Global
delivery model.
This article reflects personal view of the author
about the company and one must read offer prospectus and
consult its financial adviser before making any investment
decision

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